GDP growth in 2020-21 likely to be in negative: RBI Guv
The Reserve Bank on India (RBI) on Friday said India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be in negative territory in 2020-21 as the outbreak of coronavirus has disrupted economic activity.
In a televised address, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the global economy is heading into recession. He also said inflation outlook is "highly uncertain".
"Domestic economic activity has been impacted severely by the two-month lockdown," he said and added that the top-six industrialised states that account for 60 percent of India's industrial output are largely in red and orange zones.
He said high-frequency indicators point to collapse in demand and there is a plunge in demand for electricity and petroleum productions.
The biggest blow is to private consumption that accounts for 60 per cent of domestic demand, the RBI governor said.
Das said the combined impact of demand compression and supply disruption will depress economic activity in the first half of the current fiscal.
"Assuming that economic activity gets restored in a phased manner in the second half of this year and taking into consideration favourable base effect, it is expected that combined fiscal, monetary, and administrative measures currently undertaken by both the government and RBI create conditions for gradual revival of activities in the second half of 2020-21.
"GDP growth in 2020-21 is estimated to remain in the negative territory with some pick up in growth impulses in the second half of 2020-21 onwards," he said.
On inflation, Das said headline inflation may remain firm in the first half of the current financial year, and ease in the later part of the year.
In a major relief to borrowers, the RBI today extended the moratorium period for the repayment of loans by another three months till August to help them beat the income disruption caused due to COVID-19 crisis.
"In view of the extension of the lockdown and continuing disruptions on account of COVID-19, it has been decided to permit lending institutions to extend the moratorium on term loan installments by another three months, i.e., from June 1 to August 31, 2020," Das said.