Nykaa Q1 preview: Beauty segment to drive growth, fashion expected to improve

Vertical marketplace Nykaa is expected to post strong year-on-year growth in both its beauty and fashion businesses in the first quarter of financial year 2025-2026, helped by healthy order volumes, customer acquisition momentum, and an expanding offline presence, according to brokerages and company disclosures.

Both JM Financial Institutional Securities (JMFISL) and HDFC Securities expect mid-to-high twenties GMV growth in Nykaa’s beauty and personal care (BPC) segment for the reporting quarter. JMFISL estimated the core business BPC's GMV to rise about 26% YoY, helped by eB2B and Nykaa Man. In contrast, HDFC projects about 27% YoY growth, supported by a 28.6% YoY rise in annual unique transacting customers and about 30% growth in order volumes.

The Falguni Nayar-led company has earlier said its beauty GMV growth is being driven by broad-based gains across its online platform, physical retail stores, eB2B distribution, and an expanding “House of Nykaa” portfolio. This comes despite softer consumer sentiment during its flagship Pink Day sale, which the company said was impacted by geopolitical tensions along the Indo-Pak border. Beauty remains Nykaa’s most profitable segment, aided by repeat purchases, higher-margin private labels, and early traction in express delivery through Nykaa Now.

For fashion, HDFC sees about 25% GMV growth, driven by a 19.4% YoY rise in annual unique transacting customers and about 26% growth in order volumes. JMFISL noted “improving traction in the core platform business, supported by an expanding assortment and robust customer acquisition, resulting in revenue growth of about 14% YoY,” adding that if the momentum continues, the vertical could break even in FY26 as guided by management.

Net revenue growth in fashion is expected to be in the mid-teens, lower than GMV but marking sequential improvement, according to company disclosures.

FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd., Nykaa’s parent, projects consolidated net revenue growth in the mid-20% range for Q1FY26, driven by the BPC segment and early signs of a turnaround in fashion. Both brokerages forecast revenue growth between 23% and 25% YoY, with HDFC estimating a 24.1% rise to Rs 2,170 crore.

Both brokerages expect profitability to improve, with JM Financial forecasting an 80bps YoY expansion in EBITDA margin to 6.3%, while HDFC estimates 5.7% as compared to last year. JMFISL expects overall contribution profit to rise about 23% YoY, even as core BPC contribution margin is expected to dip.

The company, which added over 50 new stores in FY25—its largest offline expansion to date—now has a presence in more than 110 cities. Analysts will be watching for management commentary on the fashion segment’s outlook, working capital unwinding, eB2B profitability, competitive landscape shifts, and updates on supply chain investments and international expansion plans.