India scores high on semiconductor sector but modest in tech sovereignty: Forrester

India’s semiconductor chip production sovereignty score is projected to increase from 0% in 2025 to 13% by 2030. However, the country’s overall technology sovereignty score is expected to see only a modest improvement, rising from 32% in 2025 to 35% by 2030, according to a study by Forrester.

Forrester’s Global Sovereignty Forecast 2025 to 2030 report said the projected growth for India’s semiconductor sector reflects the country’s increasing momentum in building domestic chip manufacturing capabilities. However, the limited rise in its overall technology sovereignty score highlights that achieving broader technology autonomy will require sustained investments in artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure, data centre capacity, software ecosystems, skilled talent, and strategic partnerships.

According to Forrester, globally, technology sovereignty will remain difficult to achieve. It forecasts that the average technology sovereignty score across the 14 countries assessed (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the US) will rise only minimally, from 39% in 2025 to 40% in 2030, while China and the US will continue to lead with the highest overall tech sovereignty scores.

Both China and the US are expected to maintain their lead over the next five years, underscoring that tech sovereignty will remain concentrated among a small number of geopolitical and economic powers.

For midsize and emerging technology powers such as India, the path forward will depend less on full self-sufficiency and more on targeted investments, open technologies, alliances, and durable public-private partnerships.

“India is well positioned to strengthen its role in the global technology landscape, supported by its digital innovation agenda, AI ambitions, and deep technology talent pool," said Biswajeet Mahapatra, principal analyst at Forrester. "As AI competition and geopolitical uncertainty intensify, India's success will depend on balancing strategic autonomy with strong global partnerships while continuing to invest in trusted infrastructure and resilient technology ecosystems."

The Global Sovereignty Forecast of Forrester includes a tech sovereignty index, which measures a country’s ability to develop, operate, and secure critical technologies independently to reduce exposure to geopolitical risks. The index assesses each country across nine dimensions of technology sovereignty: government AI investment, cloud sovereignty, technology workforce availability, AI model development, data center capacity relative to technology spending, data center autonomy, semiconductor production, software creation, and rare earths processing.