India's ecommerce market to hit $345B by 2030: report
The expansion of ecommerce market will result in tripling of dark store network across the country.
India's ecommerce sector is projected to grow nearly three times to $345 billion by 2030 from $125 billion in 2024, propelled by the rapid expansion of quick commerce and artificial intelligence (AI) integration, according to a report released on Wednesday.
According to the report titled 'Smart Growth in a Fast Market' by research consultancy Infisum, the market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.4% through 2030.
The report highlights that the country's dark store network is set to nearly triple from 2,525 in 2025 to approximately 7,500 by 2030 to meet the surging demand for rapid deliveries.
"India's ecommerce sector is entering a transformative phase of growth and innovation, with the market projected to nearly triple from $125 billion in 2024 to $345 billion by 2030.
“Quick commerce is the fastest-growing segment within India's ecommerce ecosystem. Valued at an estimated $65-70 billion by 2030, the segment is expected to contribute 45-50% of incremental e-retail growth over the next five years," the report stated.
In the competitive quick commerce segment, Blinkit leads with a 44% market share, having processed 900 million orders in FY26. It is followed by Zepto and Swiggy Instamart with market shares of 25% and 20%, respectively.
The report identifies Gen Z as a primary driver of growth, already accounting for nearly one-third of online shoppers. It is expected to become the country's largest digital spending cohort by 2030.
Furthermore, the expansion is moving beyond metropolitan areas, with 66 per cent of new direct-to-consumer (D2C) orders now originating from Tier II and Tier III cities.
By the end of the decade, ecommerce is expected to account for 10-12% of India's total retail spending and contribute 2.5% to the national GDP, serving an estimated 420-440 million online shoppers.
On the technological front, AI and machine learning are projected to improve retail productivity by 35-37% by 2030. Innovations such as conversational commerce, AI-powered shopping assistants, and virtual try-ons are fundamentally changing consumer discovery and purchase patterns.