Trump Targets H-1B Visas – How Will It Impact India?

The announcement by former U.S. President Donald Trump to end birthright citizenship has sent shockwaves across the global immigrant community, particularly among Indian families who rely heavily on the H-1B visa program. Birthright citizenship, a constitutional guarantee in the U.S. under the 14th Amendment, grants automatic citizenship to any child born on U.S. soil, regardless of their parent's immigration status. However, Trump’s proposed policy could significantly disrupt the aspirations of thousands of Indian professionals working in the U.S., reshaping their future plans. Let’s explore this issue in depth to understand how this move could ripple across borders and impact India.

The H-1B Visa – India’s Gateway to the American Dream

To comprehend the significance of Trump’s proposal, we need to understand the context of the H-1B visa program, which has been a lifeline for Indian IT professionals. Introduced in 1990, the H-1B visa allows U.S. companies to hire skilled foreign workers, particularly in technology, engineering, and healthcare sectors. India dominates this program, with approximately 72% of H-1B visas in 2023 granted to Indian nationals—around 279,000 approvals.

Indian tech giants like Infosys, TCS, and Wipro, alongside American corporations like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, have relied on this talent pool for decades. However, tighter visa regulations under Trump’s "Buy American, Hire American" policy in his first term and the recent birthright citizenship announcement have caused widespread uncertainty.

Impact of Ending Birthright Citizenship on Indian Families

1. Dreams Deferred for H-1B Workers: Indian families often count on their U.S.-born children as anchors for long-term stability. Without automatic citizenship, these children could inherit their parents’ precarious visa status, leading to potential deportations or forced relocations.
2. The Green Card Backlog: For many H-1B workers, the path to permanent residency is an uphill battle. With green card waiting times stretching to 100 years for Indian nationals, birthright citizenship has been a critical safety net. Removing it could discourage skilled professionals from pursuing opportunities in the U.S.
3. Brain Drain or Brain Gain? If the U.S. tightens its immigration policies further, many Indian professionals might opt to stay in India, fueling the country's growing tech ecosystem. Historically, such trends have led to a “brain gain” for India. For example, after visa rejections in the early 2000s, India’s software exports skyrocketed, surpassing the U.S. by 2005.

Economic Ripples – The U.S. and Beyond

1. Innovation at Risk: Immigrants drive nearly a quarter of U.S. patents and form the backbone of Silicon Valley, with 70% of software engineers being foreign-born. Curtailing immigration could stall innovation and weaken America’s competitive edge.
2. Global Talent Dynamics: Restricting birthright citizenship could push Indian professionals toward countries like Canada, which offer more inclusive immigration policies. This could alter global talent flows, with India and other nations benefiting from returning talent and investments.
3. The Domino Effect on Entrepreneurship: Immigrants in the U.S. start businesses at higher rates than native-born citizens, with nearly 50% of billion-dollar startups having at least one immigrant founder. Limiting birthright citizenship might stifle entrepreneurship and economic growth.

What’s in Store for India?

If Trump’s policy becomes a reality, India could witness a transformation in its workforce dynamics:

1. Boom in Local Opportunities: Indian firms may see a surge in highly skilled talent returning home, boosting sectors like AI, fintech, and healthcare. This aligns with the "Make in India" initiative, propelling India’s vision to become a global tech hub.
2. Cultural and Social Implications: The return of professionals with global exposure could enrich India’s cultural fabric, but it may also increase competition in an already crowded job market.
3. The Role of Diaspora: Indian Americans, who have long been a bridge between the two nations, might see their influence diminish. This could impact bilateral relations and trade, especially in the technology and innovation sectors.

A Policy with Global Implications

Trump’s proposal to end birthright citizenship isn’t just a domestic issue—it’s a global one. It raises questions about inclusion, fairness, and the future of immigration policies in an increasingly interconnected world. For Indian families in the U.S., the stakes couldn’t be higher. As the debate unfolds, both the U.S. and India will need to adapt to the changing tides of globalisation and talent mobility.

In a world striving to break barriers, is restricting citizenship the right move? While the answer may be subjective, one thing is certain: this policy has set the stage for a heated global conversation about the value of immigration and its role in shaping our future.