GDP growth in FY24 likely to be within striking distance of 8%: SBI study
The study noted that, defying all estimates, the economy grew 8.4% in the third quarter of 2023-24 after exhibiting more than 8% growth in the preceding two quarters.
The GDP growth for the current financial year could be within striking distance of 8%, according to a study by the (SBI).
India posted an 8.4% growth in the December quarter and revised upwards the estimates for the preceding two quarters.
"The third quarter GDP numbers jolted the psyche and cognitive framework of most in markets, while sweeping some by a pleasant surprise. Clearly, right policy prisms and perspectives can trump irrational expectations bordering fault lines," SBI said, in its research report 'Ecowrap'.
It noted that defying all estimates, the economy grew 8.4% in the third quarter of 2023-24 after exhibiting more than 8% growth in the preceding two quarters.
The buoyancy in indirect tax mop-up (32% year-on-year growth), the gap between gross domestic product (GDP) and gross value added (GVA) growth, widened.
"For fiscal 2023-24 GDP growth is expected to increase 7.6% and GVA growth by 6.9% ... we estimate fourth quarter GDP growth at 5.9%, which we believe is an understatement. Thus it is most likely that FY24 GDP growth could be within striking distance of 8%," the SBI study said.
The National Statistical Office has revised GDP estimates for the first and second quarters of this fiscal to 8.2 and 8.1% from 7.8% and 7.6%, respectively.
With the revisions, the GDP growth during April-December works out to be 8.2%.
The SBI report also said that, with the government's efforts to ensure quality of life for all citizens and stop the leakage of benefits through direct benefit transfer, for the first time the per capita GDP at current prices crossed the Rs 2 lakh mark in 2023-24.
In constant prices, too, per capita GDP has increased to Rs 1.24 lakh in the current fiscal.